Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 1.618850 1.715511 1.816811 1.931218 2.057235 2.192261 2.348489
2025-11-30 1.483741 1.618992 1.767459 1.943748 2.148983 2.382414 2.670976
2025-12-07 1.375530 1.529447 1.703599 1.917471 2.176220 2.483415 2.882447
2025-12-14 1.281383 1.444582 1.633426 1.871328 2.167836 2.532058 3.024747
2025-12-21 1.219708 1.391723 1.594736 1.856381 2.191441 2.616287 3.213722
2025-12-28 1.184224 1.366824 1.586445 1.875847 2.256544 2.755013 3.484841
2026-01-04 1.138075 1.325529 1.554410 1.861463 2.274378 2.829748 3.671509
2026-01-11 1.112496 1.307921 1.550293 1.881624 2.337783 2.969481 3.964521
2026-01-18 1.081905 1.282074 1.533655 1.883197 2.374413 3.072552 4.211540
2026-01-25 1.067658 1.276122 1.541966 1.917997 2.458741 3.250370 4.596021
2026-02-01 1.026701 1.233578 1.499743 1.880394 2.435669 3.263923 4.709667
2026-02-08 0.986296 1.190240 1.454596 1.836212 2.399767 3.254116 4.780673
2026-02-15 0.960314 1.166056 1.435568 1.829840 2.422436 3.342263 5.043768
2026-02-22 0.942166 1.151662 1.429245 1.841280 2.472779 3.479369 5.417269
2026-03-01 0.913212 1.121521 1.399774 1.817119 2.465826 3.520148 5.611600
2026-03-08 0.880030 1.084518 1.359306 1.774653 2.427108 3.503272 5.687898
2026-03-15 0.858201 1.062346 1.338800 1.760888 2.433167 3.563892 5.931802
2026-03-22 0.847732 1.055405 1.339448 1.778814 2.491410 3.721456 6.408750
2026-03-29 0.828295 1.035321 1.320454 1.765569 2.496847 3.782979 6.681996
2026-04-05 0.819442 1.029729 1.322069 1.784133 2.556731 3.951213 7.237024
2026-04-12 0.806073 1.017298 1.313171 1.785581 2.587021 4.065293 7.683928
2026-04-19 0.801986 1.017877 1.323315 1.817603 2.672658 4.297231 8.492931
2026-04-26 0.779792 0.991861 1.293045 1.783000 2.637043 4.278847 8.612309